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考研英語(yǔ)時(shí)文精選“今日關(guān)注”——同源閱讀時(shí)文精選
今日關(guān)注：國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)之所謂貨幣戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)
如今中國(guó)想進(jìn)入高附加值產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)業(yè)的行列，就意味著下一階段的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展需要在人才上投放更多的資源，官方已經(jīng)明確表態(tài)，他們將以建設(shè)高速公路的決心來(lái)建設(shè)人才隊(duì)伍。自1998年以來(lái)，北京已經(jīng)大規(guī)模地將資源投放到教育上，投放總額接近GDP總量的三倍。近十年來(lái)，中國(guó)的高等院校已經(jīng)翻番，學(xué)生增加五倍，從1997年的100萬(wàn)增加到2007年的550萬(wàn)。中國(guó)遴選出9所頂級(jí)高校組成中國(guó)版的常春藤。當(dāng)歐洲和美國(guó)的大學(xué)受到大規(guī)模減免預(yù)算的沖擊時(shí)，中國(guó)反其道而行之。今年早些時(shí)候，耶魯大學(xué)校長(zhǎng)Richard Levin在一次演說(shuō)中指出：“中國(guó)高校的擴(kuò)充規(guī)模史無(wú)前例，她僅用10年的時(shí)間，就建立了世界上最大規(guī)模的高校體系。自新千年以來(lái)，中國(guó)大專院校學(xué)生所增加的人數(shù)超過(guò)美國(guó)同類別學(xué)生的總數(shù)�！�
這種對(duì)教育空前的投入，對(duì)中國(guó)還有美國(guó)意味著什么？諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)獲得者、芝加哥大學(xué)教授Robert Fogel預(yù)測(cè)，受過(guò)良好培訓(xùn)的工人對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)影響深刻。在美國(guó)，與一個(gè)受過(guò)9年義務(wù)教育的工人相比，一個(gè)高中畢業(yè)生的產(chǎn)能是其1.8倍，大學(xué)畢業(yè)生是其3倍。中國(guó)正在不斷地?cái)U(kuò)充其高中和大學(xué)畢業(yè)生的人數(shù)。中國(guó)的服務(wù)業(yè)與印度相比還有相當(dāng)大的差距，因?yàn)橛《葘W(xué)生的英語(yǔ)和技術(shù)培訓(xùn)更占優(yōu)勢(shì)。但中國(guó)的公司最終將打入這片廣闊的領(lǐng)域，因?yàn)橹袊?guó)學(xué)生的語(yǔ)言能力和技能培訓(xùn)正在逐步提高。Fogel相信，隨著中國(guó)高技術(shù)工人的增加，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的年均增長(zhǎng)率將大幅度增長(zhǎng)，到2040年，其GDP將會(huì)去到令世人驚嘆的123萬(wàn)億美元。按他的預(yù)測(cè)，屆時(shí)中國(guó)將成為全球最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體。
不能靠“威脅和關(guān)稅”回?fù)?/p>
不管這個(gè)不可思議的數(shù)字是否正確（我認(rèn)為Fogel對(duì)中國(guó)的增長(zhǎng)過(guò)分樂(lè)觀），但毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)的是，中國(guó)正在向上游產(chǎn)業(yè)和高附加值的工作轉(zhuǎn)移，這些領(lǐng)域直到現(xiàn)在還在被西方國(guó)家認(rèn)為是他們的專利，這才是來(lái)自中國(guó)的真正挑戰(zhàn)。這不是因?yàn)楸本┎倏貐R率或暗中補(bǔ)貼，而是中國(guó)戰(zhàn)略投資和中國(guó)人刻苦耐勞形成的挑戰(zhàn)。對(duì)這種挑戰(zhàn)最有力的回?fù)舨皇峭{和關(guān)稅，而是深度的結(jié)構(gòu)改革以及新的重點(diǎn)投資，使得美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)更有活力，美國(guó)工人更具競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。這需要民主和共和兩黨達(dá)成共識(shí)。
在以美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)引發(fā)的世界金融危機(jī)和經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)爆發(fā)以來(lái)，世界各國(guó)的匯率隨金融市場(chǎng)的波動(dòng)而劇烈波動(dòng)，給各國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定帶來(lái)極大的不利影響。特別是后危機(jī)時(shí)代美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇緩慢，失業(yè)嚴(yán)重，美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)少數(shù)議員為了轉(zhuǎn)移國(guó)內(nèi)視線，無(wú)端指責(zé)中國(guó)操縱人民幣匯率，以人民幣匯率大幅低估來(lái)獲取貿(mào)易順差。上月底，美國(guó)眾議院甚至通過(guò)試圖以貿(mào)易制裁中國(guó)壓迫人民幣大幅升值的法案。近期，美國(guó)通過(guò)量化寬松貨幣政策誘使美元對(duì)世界各國(guó)貨幣大幅度貶值，一場(chǎng)新的貨幣大戰(zhàn)或隱或現(xiàn)。美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)不斷向中國(guó)施壓，要求人民幣升值。美國(guó)財(cái)政部還要求國(guó)際貨幣基金組織進(jìn)行干預(yù)，以促使中國(guó)實(shí)施靈活的匯率政策。巴西、日本和其他亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)體的各央行也已為穩(wěn)定本國(guó)貨幣而出手干預(yù)。為了及時(shí)準(zhǔn)確地反映人民幣綜合匯率的整體走勢(shì)，以客觀的事實(shí)和科學(xué)的依據(jù)為國(guó)家制定匯率政策，為企業(yè)、機(jī)構(gòu)和個(gè)人規(guī)避匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，正確引導(dǎo)公眾的匯率預(yù)期，開發(fā)人民幣匯率指數(shù)具有重要現(xiàn)實(shí)意義和戰(zhàn)略意義。
The global economy
How to stop a currency war
Keep calm, don’t expect quick fixes and above all don’t unleash a trade fight with China
Economist Oct 14th 2010
IN RECENT weeks the world economy has been on a war footing, at least rhetorically. Ever since Brazil’s finance minister, Guido Mantega, declared on September 27th that an “international currency war” had broken out, the global economic debate has been recast in battlefield terms, not just by excitable headline-writers, but by officials themselves. Gone is the fuzzy rhetoric about co-operation to boost global growth. A more combative tone has taken hold. Countries blame each other for distorting global demand, with weapons that range from quantitative (量的;用量表示的;與數(shù)量有關(guān)的) easing (printing money to buy bonds) to currency intervention and capital controls.
Behind all the smoke and fury, there are in fact three battles. The biggest one is over China’s unwillingness to allow the yuan to rise more quickly. American and European officials have sounded tougher about the “damaging dynamic” caused by China’s undervalued currency. Last month the House of Representatives passed a law allowing firms to seek tariff protection against countries with undervalued currencies, with a huge bipartisan(兩個(gè)政黨的) majority. China’s “unfair” trade practices have become a hot topic in the mid-term elections.
A second flashpoint is the rich world’s monetary policy, particularly the prospect that central banks may soon restart printing money to buy government bonds. The dollar has fallen as financial markets expect the Federal Reserve to act fastest and most boldly. The euro has soared as officials at the European Central Bank show least enthusiasm for such a shift. In China’s eyes (and, sotto voce, those of many other emerging-market governments), quantitative easing creates a gross distortion in the world economy as investors rush elsewhere, especially into emerging economies, in search of higher yields.
A third area of contention comes from how the developing countries respond to these capital flows. Rather than let their exchange rates soar, many governments have intervened to buy foreign currency, or imposed taxes on foreign capital inflows. Brazil recently doubled a tax on foreign purchases of its domestic debt. This week Thailand announced a new 15% withholding tax for foreign investors in its bonds.
Jaw-jaw, please
For now, these skirmishes fall far short of a real currency war. Many of the “weapons” look less menacing on closer inspection. The capital-inflow controls are modest. In the rich world only Japan has recently resorted to currency intervention, and so far only once. Nor is there much risk of an imminent (危險(xiǎn)等逼近的;即將發(fā)生的)descent into trade retaliation(報(bào)復(fù)). Even in America, tariffs against China are still, with luck, a long way off—both because the currency bill is milder than it sounds and because it has yet to be passed by the Senate or signed by Barack Obama.
Still, there is no room for complacency(滿足;自滿) Today’s phoney war could quickly turn into a real dogfight. The conditions driving the divergence(分歧) of economic policies—in particular, sluggish（怠惰的 ）growth in the rich world—are likely to last for years. As fiscal austerity（樸素, 節(jié)儉；苦行）kicks in, the appeal of using a cheaper currency as a source of demand will increase, and the pressure on politicians to treat China as a scapegoat will rise. And if the flood of foreign capital intensifies, developing countries may be forced to choose between losing competitiveness, truly draconian（古代執(zhí)政官的, 嚴(yán)峻的）capital controls or allowing their economies to overheat.
What needs to happen is fairly clear. Global demand needs rebalancing, away from indebted rich economies and towards more spending in the emerging world. Structural reforms to boost spending in those surplus economies will help, but their real exchange rates also need to appreciate（增值）. And, yes, the Chinese yuan is too low. That is hurting not just the West but also other emerging countries (especially those with floating exchange rates) and indeed China itself, which needs to get more of its growth from domestic consumption.
It is also clear that this will not be a painless process. China is right to worry about instability if workers in exporting companies lose their jobs. And even reasonable choices—such as the rich world’s mix of fiscal austerity and loose monetary policy—will have an uncomfortable impact on small, open emerging economies, in the form of unwelcome capital inflows. This flood of capital will be less devastating to them than the harm they would suffer if the West descended into deflation（通貨緊縮）and stagnation, but it can still cause problems.
Collective Seoul-searching
All this cries out for a multilateral approach, in which institutions such as the IMF and the G20 forge consensus among the big economies. The hitch is that the multilateral route has, so far, achieved little. Hence the chorus calling
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